Rapid urbanization in the Philippines has intensified pressure on agricultural lands, heightening concerns regarding national food security and environmental sustainability. However, no study to date has comprehensively evaluated long-term agricultural land conversion within protected agricultural zones or assessed its policy implications. To address this gap, this study presents a nationwide spatial analysis of agricultural-to-built-up land conversion from 2003 to 2019 using high-resolution Earth Observation (EO) maps.
High-conversion provinces were clustered across Luzon (e.g., Bulacan, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija), Mindanao (e.g., South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Maguindanao), and select areas in the Visayas (e.g., Cebu, Negros Occidental). In contrast, low-conversion provinces such as Ifugao, Mountain Province, Palawan, and Eastern Samar exhibited limited built-up encroachment, likely owing to physical terrain constraints or lower development pressure. These results reveal that agricultural land conversion is highly stratified, frequently aligning with urbanization corridors, peri-urban zones, and areas with emerging infrastructure.
Nearly 31% (3,228 of 10,397 hectares) of cropland converted to built-up areas was located within legally protected zones under the Network of Protected Areas for Agriculture and Agro-Industrial Development (NPAAAD). Overall, among the top 15 provinces with the highest land conversion, at least eight exceeded 200 hectares of conversion within the NPAAAD zones. Central Luzon provinces, including Tarlac and Nueva Ecija, featured prominently, reinforcing regional concerns regarding land-conversion pressures in key food-production areas. Notably, most conversions occurred in Central and Southern Mindanao alongside select parts of Central and Northern Luzon, aligning with recognized hotspots of urban and industrial growth. Regionally, the NPAAAD conversions were heavily concentrated in SOCCSKSARGEN (by far the largest), followed by Northern Mindanao, the Davao Region, and BARMM, with Central Luzon registering a smaller magnitude. Because NPAAAD areas are among the nation’s most agriculturally productive, their conversion directly threatens local and national food security targets.
Agricultural land conversions in Luzon predominantly occurred near primary roads, with a mean distance of just 3.5 km, pointing to strong road-induced development pressure. Conversely, the Visayas exhibited a wider spatial spread (mean distance of 19.6 km), suggesting conversions are occurring even in relatively remote areas. Mindanao occupied an intermediate position (mean distance of 8.5 km), reflecting mixed patterns of peri-urban expansion and accessibility-driven land conversion.
At the local level, Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUPs) and zoning ordinances must be updated to align strictly with non-negotiable agricultural protection zones and Strategic Agriculture and Fisheries Development Zone (SAFDZ) guidelines. To complement regulatory oversight, local authorities should integrate parcel-level cadastral mapping with satellite-based change detection, enabling near-real-time monitoring and swift enforcement of zoning restrictions. Furthermore, incorporating trend cost–benefit analyses can assist local government units in weighing immediate development revenues against long-term losses in agricultural productivity and food security. Policy compliance audits should also target identified conversion hotspots to curb speculative land acquisition, illegal conversion, and zoning violations.
Nationally, aligning domestic legislation and enforcement frameworks with international commitments—such as the Sustainable Development Goals (specifically SDG 2 on Zero Hunger and SDG 11 on Sustainable Cities) and the Paris Agreement—can bolster agricultural resilience and attract climate-aligned investment.
These findings confirm serious concerns regarding unchecked agricultural land conversion and highlight the urgent need for institutional reform, most notably through the passage of the National Land Use Act (NaLUA). To support this framework, integrating satellite-based real-time monitoring, crowdsourcing apps, and AI-driven spatial tools will be essential for detecting unauthorized land-use shifts and guiding local planning decisions. Ultimately, this research provides a situational analysis to help policymakers and key stakeholders advance evidence-based land-use planning.
Authors: Arnan B. Araza (Earth Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University and Research | IMPACT R&D, 47 Razburg, San Agustin Bay, Laguna), Wesley Gagarin (College of Science, Tarlac State University), Ma. Christina Corales (Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture), Chad Patrick Osorio (Law Group, Wageningen University and Research | Environmental Economics and Natural Resources, Wageningen University and Research | School of Environmental Science and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños), Marlo D. Mendoza (College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines College Los Baños), and Rico Ancog (School of Environmental Science and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños | Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture)
Read the full paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837725004089